Game Overview
Matchup: #16 Iowa State (2–0) vs. Iowa (1–0)
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Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
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Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025 — Kickoff at noon Eastern / 11 a.m. Central
- Spread: Iowa State favored by 3.5 points
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Total (Over/Under): Ranges between 41.5 and 43 point
Model simulations from CBS Sports
Iowa +3.5 to cover (58% of simulations)
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Over 43 points CBSSports.com
Key Storylines & Trends
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Offensive Dynamics
Iowa State’s QB Rocco Becht is off to a hot start—nearly 69% completion, 461 yards, 5 TDs through two games, with no interceptions. Iowa faltered through the air early: QB Mark Gronowski was 8-of-15 for just 44 yards and a touchdown against Albany, though he showed mobility in the pocket. -
Ground Game Impact
Iowa will lean on the on the run: Xavier Williams carried 11 times for 122 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Iowa State mixes heavy personnel and versatile packages, even after losing two primary receivers. -
Defensive Battleground
Historically, the Cy-Hawk clashes are low-scoring defensive affairs—the last six averaged just 30.7 points. Iowa State’s defense is tested, Iowa’s remains stout—as they held Albany to 43 total yards. -
Home/Road Trend
Since 2012, the road team has dominated this rivalry. Iowa State hasn’t won at home since 2011, and Iowa has been particularly strong on the road in this matchup
Predictions & Insights
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Best Bets:
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Iowa +3.5 — road momentum + past trends favor Hawkeyes covering.
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Over (41.5–43) — both offenses showing early-season fire despite defensive tendencies
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